Agricultral Expansion, Climate and Geomorphic change in the Kilombero Valley Floodplain, Tanzania (2023 - present)

I was very lucky to be invited to go to Tanzania to look at river/overland erosion in the Kilombero Valley in 2022, central Tanzania, as part of the Agrisys project and attended an ICUN workshop in Morogoro and visit the valley. It was fascinating and as someone who initally was not intrested in the tropics I am now hooked! Following this trip and a follow up in 2024, I alongside people at Sokoine University of Agriculture, Newcastle University and University of Stirling have been working on several projects outlined below:

Part 1. Evaluating the combined impacts of agricultural land use policy and near-future climate change on soil loss across a tropical catchment.

Accelerated land use change, e.g. rainforest conversion to cropland, and increasingly extreme climate represent two of the biggest threats facing tropical soils, which are critical to support resilient small-holder communities and wider ecosystems. Using the Kilombero Valley as a case study, we project soil loss into the future under different shared socioeconomic pathways and land use change scenarios up to 2100. We test how different land use policies can either abate or accelerate soil loss under climate change with the work aiming to increase the evidence base to strengthens the resilience of soil resources and rural livelihoods under a changing climate

Currently in prep will update when paper is accepted.

Part 2. Assessing the impact of climate change on key agroforestry species distribution and their uses across Tanzania, East Africa

Climate change is a major driver of species loss as species range shift to adapt. Previous work has shown key agroforestry species are vulnerable to climate change however, the effect of climate change on known/listed agroforestry species in Tanzania has yet to be assessed. Using species distribution modelling we test the effect of climate change on the range distribution of 70 species under different three shared-socio economic pathways.

Currently in prep will update when paper is accepted.